Inflow at the Kings Creek gauge and what it does to your water level — in one place.
At 7,270 cfs, the creek adds about +0.49 ft/day. After the summer baseline loss (−0.41 in/day, evaporation + pumping), the lake is on track to rise +0.46 ft/day (+5.5 in). A peak like this won't hold — events rise and recede — but it shows the scale. Watch the lake tile over the next 1–3 days.
basis Inflow side: ≈ 0.8 in of rise per 1,000 cfs-days (creek-only at ×1). Loss side: summer ≈ 0.41 in/day, winter ≈ 0.14 in/day, combining TWDB-method net evaporation off the ~29,558-acre surface with TRWD diversions (~150,000 ac-ft/yr, seasonally weighted). Pumping is variable and not a live feed, so the loss is a typical figure, not a measurement. The basin multiplier is an illustration of ungauged runoff and rain on the lake.
| Kings Ck flow (1 day) | Lake rise (creek only) |
|---|---|
| 36 cfs · typical | 0.03 in |
| 500 cfs · small fresh | 0.40 in |
| 2,000 cfs · solid event | 1.6 in |
| 7,270 cfs · today's peak | 5.9 in |
| 1 in rain on lake · direct | ≈ 1.0 in |
magnitude · exact
The lake covers ~29,558 acres. One cfs for a day = 1.98 acre-feet, so it takes a real event to move the level: ~0.8 inches per 1,000 cfs-days from Kings Creek.
travel time · estimate
The creek mouth is ~18 miles up-lake from the dam gauge. A flood wave reaches the upper lake in hours; the measured rise at the dam builds over ~1–3 days and can keep climbing for several more on a big event.
the catch
This gauge sees only the upper Kings Creek sub-basin — a slice of the reservoir's 1,007 sq-mi watershed. In a widespread storm the lake rises more than the creek-only number (other creeks + rain on the lake); in a localized one it tracks closer. Use the gauge as a leading indicator and a floor.
outflow · always on
Two things drain the lake every day: evaporation off the surface (~0.18 in/day in summer, near zero in winter) and TRWD pumping to the Metroplex (Cedar Creek supplies on the order of ~150,000 ac-ft/yr). Together that's roughly 0.4 in/day in summer and 0.14 in/day in winter — equivalent to ~500 and ~170 cfs of "negative inflow." That's why the estimator subtracts a seasonal baseline, and why the lake can fall even with the creek running. The figures match the lake's actual ~3.5-ft drop over the past year.